ISTAT cuts the estimates of the GDP, Piazza Affari accelerates to the downside


Italian GDP increased by 0.4% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter and by 1.7% compared to the third quarter of 2016 (+ 0.5% and + 1.8% forecasts). The activity of the Italian manufacturing sector grew in November at the fastest pace for over six and a half years, but below expectations. Financial, Fca and StM in the sales view.

Piazza Affari accelerates to the downside even if the activity of the Italian manufacturing sector grew in November at the fastest pace for over six and a half years. The Italian manufacturing PMI index, developed by Markit / Adaci, rose to 58.3, the highest level since February 2011, from 57.8 points in October. The index therefore consolidated above the 50-point threshold, which separates growth from the contraction of the sector, although it is slightly below the estimates of the economists at 58.5 points.

The sub-index relating to new orders to the manufacturing sector has in turn taken to a maximum since April 2000, reaching 61.5 points from 59.4 in October. An improvement was also shown by most of the other components of the economic survey, although employment growth slowed compared to the previous month’s record. A figure that could fuel optimism for the performance of the country’s economy in the final quarter of 2017.

But this morning ISTAT revised downward estimates of GDP growth in the third quarter: the gross domestic product, expressed in chained values ​​with reference year 2010, adjusted for calendar effects, increased by 0.4% compared to previous quarter and 1.7% compared to the third quarter of 2016. The preliminary estimate released on November 14th recorded a cyclical increase of 0.5% and a trend increase of 1.8%. The third quarter of 2017 had three more working days than the previous quarter and one working day less than the third quarter of 2016.

Compared to the previous quarter, all the main aggregates of domestic demand recorded increases, with a 0.3% increase in national final consumption and 3% in gross fixed investments. Imports and exports grew by 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively. The national demand, net of inventories, contributed to the growth of GDP by 0.7 percentage points (+0.5 gross fixed investments, +0.2 consumption by households and private social institutions and a zero contribution from public expenditure administration).

On the other hand, the change in inventories contributed negatively (-0.5 percentage points), while that in net foreign demand was positive (+0.2 points). There were positive economic trends also due to the added value of the industry (+ 1.3%) and services (+ 0.1%), while the added value of agriculture decreased by 3.6%. The acquired change in GDP for 2017 is thus equal to + 1.4%. In mid-November, an estimate of + 1.5% was indicated. The government’s forecast, contained in the update to Def, forecasts a 1.5% increase for the current year: it would be the best performance since 2010, since before the long recession caused by the international debt crisis.

“The positive news is that, despite the decline in the estimate, the government’s forecast for a 1.5% GDP growth in 2017 is still valid, and the negative is that we are far from the growth path that would serve Country after a crisis that has no precedents in the post-war period “, commented Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers’ Union. “Household spending is on the run, in particular that of non-durable goods, also purchased by those in difficulty, which rises only 0.1% on a cyclical basis, remaining the bottom-line in growth”. For Dona it is “a sign that families are still struggling to get to the end of the month”.

Returning to the SMEs, the manufacturing activity in Germany in November accelerated the pace of growth. In fact, the index jumped to 62.5 from 60.6 in October. This is the highest level since February 2011 and the second best reading since the survey began in 1996. “In over two decades of data collection, growth was only better once, at the beginning of 2011, when levels of production were still recovering from a collapse caused by the financial crisis, “commented Phil Smith, an economist at IHS Markit.

“New orders, exports and employment have all grown at a rate close to the highest ever recorded in the survey, highlighting what is an extraordinary moment for producers of goods, as well as for the labor market,” added Smith . The French manufacturing sector was not far behind: in November the index rose to 57.7 from 56.1 in October, above the flash estimate of 57.5. “The latest figures continue to show a positive picture of French manufacturing, with production, new orders and jobs all expanding at high rates and accelerating,” said IHS economist Markit, Alex Gill, expecting a continuation of growth also for the last month of the year and with an average of 56.9 between October and November the

Also the PMI of the manufacturing companies in Spain jumped to 56.1 in November from 55.8 in the October reading, rising to a maximum since February 2007, with the production index to 57.7 from 56.8 in the previous month. . Thus, the final reading of the euro area PMI index stood at 60.1 in November, the highest level for over 17 years, compared to the October figure of 58.5 and the flash estimate of 60. This is the second highest reading in the twenty-year history of the survey. “The November survey clearly shows an improved reading of SMEs for all countries, the best performance of manufacturing in the euro zone since the highs of the boom in .com”, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

After this burst of macro data at the Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib index drops 1.04% to 22,135 points. Frankfurt (-1.06%) and Paris (-1.02%) are also bad, with London (-0.17%). While the euro / dollar exchange rate remains above the psychological threshold of 1.19 to 1.1912, but down from today’s highs, driven mainly by adjustments to positions linked to the end of the month. The greenback is at least partly due to the relative slowness with which the process of approval of the tax package developed and promoted by Donald Trump continues at the Congress.

On the Milan blue chip list only four Banca Mediolanum securities are saved from sales (+ 0.01%), Unicredit (+ 0.18%), Eni (on parity at € 13.81) and Saipem (+ 1.19%) that yesterday announced new orders. Weaker Italgas (-1.50%) with Banca Akros that cut. Banks are struggling: Intesa Sanpaolo leaves 1.06% on the ground, Ubi Banca 1.14%, Bper Banca 1.44% and Banco Bpm 0.69%. Outside the main basket, the Creval isalso bad (-3.25%) and Banca Carige  (-0.99%).

Same adverse fate for asset management securities: Banca Generali does not benefit from press rumors about negotiations to acquire a Swiss company and sells 1.39%. Down also FinecoBank (-0.59%), Azimut (-0.19%) and Poste Italiane (-0.73%). Benefits taken also on insurance, while Fiat Chrysler was the protagonist of a violent downward movement (intraday minimum at 13.73 euros) and now loses 2.64%. Stm suffers too (-2.68%) since, according to the Japanese press, Apple  it could internally produce the chips for the management of the batteries and their recharge (power management integrated circuits-PMIC) in the new version of the iPhone 2018.

At the moment Apple it already directly produces the core processor and the graphic unit of the iPhone. “The news is clearly negative for Dialog Semiconductor, which accounts for over 50% of Apple ‘s revenue especially for PMICs, and more generally for the iPhone supply chain, including StM . In particular, “said the Equita analysts , “it is estimated that StM derive just under 10% of the turnover from Apple , providing an imaging solution for FaceID (3D recognition, ed), but in our opinion it is more difficult to internalize in the short term, given its complexity “.


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